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A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in São Paulo city

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  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos
  • Ana Lúcia Kassouf

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to investigate possible causes for the significant reduction observed in crime rates in São Paulo city. By applying a cointegration analysis, we observed long-run relationships between crime, economic activity, and police performance. The results indicate that the lethal crime rate is positively related to unemployment and negatively related to real wages and to the results of law-enforcement activities, specifically arrests and seizure of firearms. Moreover, the hypothesis that the Disarmament Statute led to a reduction in the lethal crime rate is not rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Justus dos Santos & Ana Lúcia Kassouf, 2013. "A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in São Paulo city," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 2087-2109, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:40:y:2013:i:10:p:2087-2109
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2013.804905
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahmoud MOURAD, 2022. "Impact of Welfare and Unemployment on the Crimes in the United States: Co-integration Analysis," Journal of Public Administration and Governance, Macrothink Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 120-120, December.
    2. Jawadi, Fredj & Mallick, Sushanta K. & Idi Cheffou, Abdoulkarim & Augustine, Anish, 2021. "Does higher unemployment lead to greater criminality? Revisiting the debate over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 448-471.
    3. Temidayo James Aransiola & Marcelo Justus & Vania Ceccato, 2023. "Space-time dynamics of cargo theft: evidence from São Paulo, Brazil," Journal of Transportation Security, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, December.

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