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To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects


  • Göran Kauermann
  • Nina Westerheide


The aim of this paper is to show the flexibility and capacity of penalized spline smoothing as estimation routine for modelling duration time data. We analyse the unemployment behaviour in Germany between 2000 and 2004 using a massive database from the German Federal Employment Agency. To investigate dynamic covariate effects and differences between competing job markets depending on the distance between former and recent working place, a functional duration time model with competing risks is used. It is build upon a competing hazard function where some of the smooth covariate effects are allowed to vary with unemployment duration. The focus of our analysis is on contrasting the spatial, economic and individual covariate effects of the competing job markets and on analysing their general influence on the unemployed's re-employment probabilities. As a result of our analyses, we reveal differences concerning gender, age and education. We also discover an effect between the newly formed and the old West German states. Moreover, the spatial pattern between the considered job markets differs.

Suggested Citation

  • Göran Kauermann & Nina Westerheide, 2012. "To move or not to move to find a new job: spatial duration time model with dynamic covariate effects," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 995-1009, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:39:y:2012:i:5:p:995-1009 DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2011.634394

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