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The Persistence And Japan's Trade Surplus

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  • Chulho Jung
  • Khosrow Doroodian

Abstract

In this study we use tiem-series data to examine the persistence of Japanese trade balance surplus and the existence of a J-curve effect for the period 1975 (I)-1990(I). We extend the earlier studies by applying the Shiller lag model to the first differences of the variables that are subject to a unite root process. The empirical findings support the J-curve effect for Japan and also illustrate that it take 13 quarters before the full effect of an exchange rate change on the trade balance is realized. The results also suggest that in 1985(I), for example, a once-and for -all real currency appreciation of 36.2 percent would remove the average quarterly real trade balance surplus of 2.5 trillion yen in 13 quartets, ceteris paribys.[F30]

Suggested Citation

  • Chulho Jung & Khosrow Doroodian, 1998. "The Persistence And Japan's Trade Surplus," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 25-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:25-37
    DOI: 10.1080/10168739800000002
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    Cited by:

    1. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.

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