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Innovation activities and business cycles: are trademarks a leading indicator?

Author

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  • Charles A. W. deGrazia
  • Amanda Myers
  • Andrew A. Toole

Abstract

Despite the widespread use of economic information to anticipate changes in business conditions, innovation metrics are not considered to be leading indicators. We argue that aggregate trademark data reflect firm-level choices that can help predict business cycles. In addition to establishing the conceptual basis for considering trademarks, our statistical evaluations, using turning point analysis and a novel machine learning method, find that trademark filings for product and service offerings in commercial use outperform many of the conventional leading indicators. Our work suggests that including trademark metrics in composite indexes could improve recession forecasting performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles A. W. deGrazia & Amanda Myers & Andrew A. Toole, 2020. "Innovation activities and business cycles: are trademarks a leading indicator?," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-2), pages 184-203, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:indinn:v:27:y:2020:i:1-2:p:184-203
    DOI: 10.1080/13662716.2019.1650252
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Castaldi & Sandro Mendonca, 2021. "Regions and trademarks. Research opportunities and policy insights from leveraging trademarks in regional innovation studies," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2138, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Dec 2021.
    2. Yougen Cao & Shengce Ren & Mei Du, 2022. "Strategic trademark management: a systematic literature review and prospects for future research," Journal of Brand Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(5), pages 435-453, September.
    3. Leonardo Costa Ribeiro & Ulisses Pereira Santos & Valbona Muzaka, 2022. "Trademarks as an indicator of innovation: towards a fuller picture," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(1), pages 481-508, January.

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