Social desirability bias and public opinion on nuclear weaponization: Evidence from a list experiment in South Korea

Public opinion polls in South Korea consistently report strong majority support for independent nuclear acquisition, seemingly contradicting global nonproliferation norms and the nuclear taboo. However, these results may be distorted by social desirability bias. If respondents perceive support for nuclear weapons as socially unacceptable, they may underreport their true preferences. Conversely, if they believe that most people support nuclear acquisition—an impression reinforced by media narratives—they may feel pressured to align with that view, leading to overreporting. To estimate unbiased levels of support, we implement a list experiment and compare the results to direct survey responses. Our findings indicate substantial overreporting rather than underreporting, suggesting that the commonly cited majority support in direct surveys is inflated. We propose conformity bias—the tendency to adopt perceived majority views—as a likely explanation for this pattern. The list experiment places actual support below 50%, challenging the prevailing perception of widespread pro-nuclear sentiment in South Korea.