When reintegration of ex-combatants turns deadly: The state’s role in preventing post-conflict homicides

Post-conflict societies often experience high levels of violence after demobilizing armed groups. Is this violence driven by resettling former combatants within civilian communities? And how can states prevent this form of violence? We answer the first question affirmatively but argue that the rise in violence is chiefly the result of targeted attacks against ex-combatants. These revenge killings may spill over, creating more insecurity for host communities. The state can prevent this kind of violence by providing protection for ex-combatants. We theorize that credible state security guarantees reduce violence through two mechanisms: first, by deterring attacks through physical protection, and second, by encouraging ex-combatants to rely on the state for security provision. Drawing on geo-located data from 12,000 fighters of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), we show that the presence of ex-combatants increased targeted assassinations and general homicide rates after the 2016 Peace Agreement. These effects were compounded when ex-combatants became more visible and identifiable through participation in collective economic projects or collaboration with civilians – two hallmarks of community-based peacebuilding. However, state protection moderated these effects. FARC members who received state protection were more likely to trust state agents and report security threats to them. Unlike previous studies that focus on reconciliation between civilians and ex-combatants, this paper theorizes the role of the state in rebuilding state–rebel bonds during Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR).