Learning from betrayal: How do lessons from the past shape future alliance treaty designs?

Are victims of alliance violations still engaged in alliance politics? If so, are they learning from past experiences when designing future alliance treaties? This study examines how previous violations shape the design of future alliance treaties, emphasizing the role of learning in alliance politics. It addresses a gap in the research, which has largely overlooked how treaty abrogations influence the subsequent behavior of victimized states. Specifically, the study explores the lessons learned by both victims and violators and how these lessons shape preferences for alliance design. Based on the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) dataset, this study identifies victims of alliance violations and assesses the severity of treaty abrogations. The findings reveal that while victims of alliance violations continue to pursue alliances, they tend to avoid highly formalized and institutionalized treaties. Moreover, more severe betrayals have a stronger impact, reinforcing caution in alliance design. This study contributes to understanding how states learn from past alliance failures, offering new insights into the interplay between alliance violations, strategic adaptation, and institutional design in alliance politics.