To punish or to reward? The effect of sanction threats on public opinion

How do individuals respond to the threat of economic sanctions? Under what conditions do the target population demand policy concessions, and when do they rally behind their beleaguered leader? We investigate these questions through a survey experiment conducted in Türkiye in April 2021 with 2,522 participants. Our study examines the impact of three key factors on sanction threat effectiveness: the perceived credibility of sanctions imposition, the expected economic costs, and the anticipated benefits of compliance. Contrary to our expectations, we find little evidence that these factors enhance the effectiveness of sanction threats. Neither the prospect of economic hardship nor the promise of rewards significantly increases public support for concessions. Instead, our findings suggest that sanctions, particularly when paired with positive inducements, can provoke a backlash among certain groups, especially government supporters. These results highlight the limitations of sanction threats in societies with deeply held partisan identities.