Not All Stationary Bandits are the Same: Ethnicity, Insurgency Goals, and Welfare Service Provision

Rebels often provide welfare services to civilians to build public support for their cause. However, are some rebels more likely to provide these than others? We argue that ethnicity and insurgency goals explain variation in welfare service provision. Rebels do the rational calculus of whether to provide welfare services (weighing benefits versus costs). Compared to ethnic-based groups, non-ethnic rebels do not have the ability to mobilize people based on ascriptive ties. In many ways, welfare service provision is a material incentive to overcome challenges to collective action. Generally, ethnic rebels do not face the necessity of providing side payments for mobilization purposes. However, ethnic separatists (especially those who established unrecognized states) do provide welfare services as a part of the state-building process. We find evidence for our hypotheses in empirical analyses of over 200 rebels. On the one hand, there is a significant difference between non-ethnic and ethnic/non-separatists in welfare service provision. On the other hand, ethnic separatists are found to be more likely to provide these services than others if they have unrecognized states.