Climate Harshness, Opportunity, and Environmental Violence

Will climate change affect how armed actors behave toward civilians? Scholars analyzed different links between environmental variability and war, but research on links between the former and violence against civilians is very limited. Focusing on the Sahara Desert transition zone, which stretches across the entire African continent, we argue that climate harshness raises the willingness of actors to engage in competitive violence over resources. An underlying condition is this violence happens in times of greater environmental security, which provides opportunity for actors to engage in violence. We test this argument using statistical analysis of a newly released climate-conflict geospatial dataset and find support for this theoretical expectation. The conclusion outlines both research and policy implications.