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Probing the Democratic Peace Argument Using Linguistic Fuzzy Logic

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  • Badredine Arfi

Abstract

Why have the numerous debates on the “democratic peace” remained inconclusive? In addressing this question, the paper examines causality in social sciences by using propositional calculus in the framework of linguistic fuzzy logic. The paper does this by taking into account the possibility that some causal relations might be more or less of a sufficient type while others might be more or less of a necessary type, and while still others might be of both types to a lesser or greater degree of truth. The paper shows that depending on how much more or less democratic the two states are, and depending on how much more or less they feel threatened by one another, this more or less sufficiently causes a more or less possibility of fighting between the two states. Therefore, the lack of agreement on the possibility of a democratic peace is strictly speaking neither a problem of empirical validation, nor one of theoretical explanation, although these are still important issues. Instead, the lack of agreement has much to do with taking for granted a Boolean logic approach as a framework for validating the democratic peace argument. A linguistic fuzzy-logic framework predicts a much more diverse set of conclusions than just whether or not two democracies go to war.

Suggested Citation

  • Badredine Arfi, 2009. "Probing the Democratic Peace Argument Using Linguistic Fuzzy Logic," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 30-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:35:y:2009:i:1:p:30-57
    DOI: 10.1080/03050620902743838
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Badredine Arfi, 2006. "Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Game Theory," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(1), pages 28-57, February.
    2. Arfi, Badredine, 2005. "Fuzzy Decision Making in Politics: A Linguistic Fuzzy-Set Approach (LFSA)," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 23-56, January.
    3. Steve Chan, 2003. "Explaining War Termination: a Boolean Analysis of Causes," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(1), pages 49-66, January.
    4. Badredine Arfi, 2006. "Linguistic Fuzzy-Logic Social Game of Cooperation," Rationality and Society, , vol. 18(4), pages 471-537, November.
    5. Dina A. Zinnes, 2004. "Constructing Political Logic," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(3), pages 430-454, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Badredine Arfi, 2013. "Causality in social theory via linguistic fuzzy logic," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 853-880, February.
    2. Ben Heylen & Mike Nachtegael, 2013. "The integration of fuzzy sets and statistics: toward strict falsification in the social sciences," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 3185-3200, October.

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