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Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market

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  • Simon Stevenson
  • James Young

Abstract

This paper compares the performance of three alternative models in forecasting housing supply in the Irish Republic. The results highlight key behavioural issues in the dynamics of housing supply that the OLS and VAR models fail to adequately capture due to the inclusion of fundamental variables in their specification. The behaviour of developers in delaying projects means that housing supply can often respond slowly to demand shocks. For this reason the OLS and VAR models substantially over-estimate housing supply during the period 1998–2001. In comparison the simple ARIMA model provides generally accurate forecasts of supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2007. "Forecasting Housing Supply: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Market," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjhp:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1080/14616710601132518
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    Cited by:

    1. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2022. "A revised financial satellite model for COSMO," Papers WP737, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Sophia L. Zhou, 2022. "Real Estate Trend Prediction Using Linear Regression And Artificial Neural Network Techniques," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.

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