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When And How The Fighting Stops: Explaining The Duration And Outcome Of Civil Wars

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Brandt
  • T. David Mason
  • Mehmet Gurses
  • Nicolai Petrovsky
  • Dagmar Radin

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Brandt & T. David Mason & Mehmet Gurses & Nicolai Petrovsky & Dagmar Radin, 2008. "When And How The Fighting Stops: Explaining The Duration And Outcome Of Civil Wars," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 415-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:415-434
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690701823267
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. J Michael Greig & T David Mason & Jesse Hamner, 2018. "Win, lose, or draw in the fog of civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(5), pages 523-543, September.
    2. Sabine Otto, 2018. "The Grass Is Always Greener? Armed Group Side Switching in Civil Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1459-1488, August.
    3. Böhm, Robert & Halevy, Nir & Kugler, Tamar, 2022. "The power of defaults in intergroup conflict," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Marius Mehrl & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    5. Brandon Prins & Anup Phayal & Ursula E Daxecker, 2019. "Fueling rebellion: Maritime piracy and the duration of civil war," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 128-147, June.
    6. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    7. Kirssa Cline Ryckman & Jessica Maves Braithwaite, 2020. "Changing horses in midstream: Leadership changes and the civil war peace process," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(1), pages 83-105, January.
    8. Stephen Nemeth & Brian Lai, 2022. "When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 28-42, January.
    9. Patricia L. Sullivan & Johannes Karreth, 2015. "The conditional impact of military intervention on internal armed conflict outcomes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(3), pages 269-288, July.

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