The Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market: is the Russia-Ukraine war a game changer?

The Arab Gulf states and Russia have traditionally been major suppliers of hydrocarbons to the energy-poor countries of Asia. This article considers the extent to which engagement by the Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market is likely to be significantly impacted by the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022. On the one hand, the war is likely to increase the intensity of Russia engagement with Asia and to recalibrate relations with certain Asian partners, with implications for the Gulf states. On the other hand, Asia as theatre of competition for energy suppliers – and the Gulf states as the dominant oil and gas suppliers for the region – has roots in pre-2022 trends and is unlikely to change. The qualitative analysis, supported by extensive use of diverse secondary datasets on the energy trade, concludes that for the Gulf states, the Russia-Ukraine war is less an exogenous, sudden, and “critical juncture” event than an acceleration of existing trends in the Asian energy market.