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Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations

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  • Yong Peng
  • Wei Xu
  • Bingbing Liu

Abstract

This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China’s Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Peng & Wei Xu & Bingbing Liu, 2017. "Considering precipitation forecasts for real-time decision-making in hydropower operations," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 987-1002, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:cijwxx:v:33:y:2017:i:6:p:987-1002
    DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2016.1219942
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