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Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia

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  • Kris Ivanovski
  • Sefa Awaworyi Churchill

Abstract

The demand for money has received a great deal of attention in the empirical literature. This literature, however, has emphasized factors such as interest rate, income, inflation rate and exchange rate as the primary determinants of money demand. Although an emerging strand of literature examines uncertainty as a potential determinant of money demand, findings have been mixed. Using a news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and Australian quarterly data from 1998 to 2017, we study the impact of policy uncertainty on demand for money. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) results show that the economic policy uncertainty measure has a negative short-run effect on the demand for money, suggesting the wider public hedge against future expected inflation, and positive long-run effect, whereby the broader public hold more cash to stay liquid during times of economic uncertainty. Also, introducing nonlinearity into the money demand equation, we find an asymmetric effect, more in favour of currency appreciations, supporting the expectations effect of further appreciations in exchange rate movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Kris Ivanovski & Sefa Awaworyi Churchill, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(41), pages 4516-4526, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:41:p:4516-4526
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1593936
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    Cited by:

    1. Kučerová, Zuzana & Pakši, Daniel & Koňařík, Vojtěch, 2024. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and attention: What drives european consumers’ inflation expectations?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    2. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    3. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on demand for money in developed countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    4. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2022. "Japan-US bilateral commodity-level trade and trade policy-related uncertainty under the COVID-19 pandemic: the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1397-1418, August.
    5. S. M. Woahid Murad, 2022. "The role of domestic and foreign economic uncertainties in determining the foreign exchange rates: an extended monetary approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 666-677, October.

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