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The effect of quantitative easing on stock prices: a structural time series approach

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  • Sulaiman A. Al-Jassar
  • Imad A. Moosa

Abstract

A structural time series model is estimated and tested to examine the effect of quantitative easing (QE) on US stock prices. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood in a Time-varying parametric (TVP) framework, using the S&P 500 index as the dependent variable and the Fed’s balance as an explanatory variable in addition to the unobserved components accounting for the behaviour of variables that do not appear explicitly in the equation. The results show that QE had a sizeable, but not exclusive, effect on stock prices and that stock prices were also affected by other missing variables and cyclical movements. Several explanations are presented for the rise of the US stock market in the post-QE period, particularly since the election of Donald Trump.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulaiman A. Al-Jassar & Imad A. Moosa, 2019. "The effect of quantitative easing on stock prices: a structural time series approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(17), pages 1817-1827, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:17:p:1817-1827
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1529396
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    Cited by:

    1. George B. Tawadros & Imad A. Moosa, 2022. "A Structural Time Series Analysis of the Effect of Quantitative Easing on Stock Prices," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. David Knezevic & Martin Nordström & Pär Österholm, 2021. "The relation between municipal and government bond yields in an era of unconventional monetary policy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 50(1), February.
    5. Tarron Khemraj & Sherry Yu, 2023. "Inflation Dynamics and Quantitative Easing," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 613-638, October.
    6. Axelsson, Birger & Song, Han-Suck, 2023. "The effect of quantitative easing and quantitative tightening on U.S. equity REIT returns," Working Paper Series 23/9, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance, revised 14 Nov 2023.
    7. Clifford Paul Hallwood, 2021. "Correcting US payments imbalances: Taxing foreign holders of its treasury securities is better than import tariffs," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(8), pages 2228-2237, August.

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