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Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

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  • Celil Aydin
  • Ömer Esen

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Celil Aydin & Ömer Esen, 2019. "Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(15), pages 1666-1678, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:15:p:1666-1678
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1528335
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    Cited by:

    1. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Esen, Ömer & Yıldırım, Seda, 2022. "The nonlinear effects of environmental innovation on energy sector-based carbon dioxide emissions in OECD countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    2. Suleyman Kasal, 2023. "Analysing The Armey Curve Based On The Fourier Cointegration Approach For Turkey," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 68(236), pages 139-158, January –.
    3. Hazwan Haini & Pang Wei Loon, 2021. "Does Government Ideology Affect the Relationship Between Government Spending and Economic Growth?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 209-216, September.
    4. Darko B. Vuković & Moinak Maiti & Marko D. Petrović, 2023. "Tourism Employment and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    5. Coayla, Edelina, 2021. "The Optimal Size of Government and the Armey Curve: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).

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