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Exchange rate volatility--economic growth nexus in Uganda

Author

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  • Lorna Katusiime
  • Frank W. Agbola
  • Abul Shamsuddin

Abstract

The global financial crisis has disrupted trade and capital flows in most developing economies, resulting in an increased volatility of exchange rates. We develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Uganda. Using data spanning the period 1960--2011, we find that exchange rate volatility positively affects economic growth in Uganda in both the short run and the long run. However, in the short run, political instability negatively moderates the exchange rate volatility--economic growth nexus. These results are robust to alternative specifications of the economic growth model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorna Katusiime & Frank W. Agbola & Abul Shamsuddin, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility--economic growth nexus in Uganda," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2428-2442, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:26:p:2428-2442
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1122732
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 15-38.
    2. Wen, Shaobo & An, Haizhong & Chen, Zhihua & Liu, Xueyong, 2017. "Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 299-308.
    3. Fourie, Justin & Pretorius, Theuns & Harvey, Rhett & Henrico, Van Niekerk & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 74671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ruwan Jayathilaka & Rishani Rathnayake & Bhakthi Jayathilake & Thanuja Dharmasena & Dananja Bodinayake & Deumi Kathriarachchi, 2023. "Exploring the growth direction: the impact of exchange rate and purchasing managers index on economic growth in Sri Lanka," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2687-2703, June.
    5. Lukman Ayinde Olorogun, 2022. "Revisiting the Nexus of FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Rwanda: a Johansen-ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 2695-2717, December.
    6. Yegnanew A. Shiferaw, 2019. "Multivariate Analysis of East African Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 587-610, November.
    7. Ebenezer Olamide & Kanayo Ogujiuba & Andrew Maredza, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.

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