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Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada

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  • Zuzana Janko
  • Gurleen Popli

Abstract

We use national and regional Canadian data to analyse the relationship between economic activity (as reflected by the unemployment rate) and crime rates. Given potential aggregation bias, we disaggregate the crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes rates and unemployment rate; we also disaggregate the data by region. We employ an error correction model in our analysis to test for short-run and long-run dynamics. We find no evidence of long-run relationship between crime and unemployment, when we look at both disaggregation by type of crime and disaggregation by region. Lack of evidence of a long-run relationship indicates we have no evidence of the motivation hypothesis. For selected types of property crimes, we find some evidence of a significant negative short-run relationship between crime and unemployment, lending support to the opportunity hypothesis. Inclusion of control variables in the panel analysis does not alter the findings, qualitatively or quantitatively.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Janko & Gurleen Popli, 2015. "Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4007-4019, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:37:p:4007-4019
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1023942
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    Cited by:

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    4. Alassane Diaw & Oana-Ramona Lobont & Nicoleta Claudia Moldovan, 2014. "Some relevant risk factors and causal mechanisms to understand crime in Romania," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 8(2), pages 64-69, June.
    5. Kabeya Clement Mulamba, 2021. "A Spatial Analysis of Property Crime Rates in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 329-347, September.
    6. Dmitry Burakov, 2019. "Oil Hikes, Drugs and Bribes: Do Oil Prices Matter for Crime Rate in Russia?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 84-94.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • K1 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law

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