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Different approaches of modelling reaction lags: how do Chilean manufacturing exports react to movements of the real exchange rate?

  • Nowak-Lehmann Felicitas

This study examines the relationship between export supply and the real exchange rate using annual Chilean data for the period 1960-1996. The hypotheses to be tested are first, that the real exchange rate does matter for the supply of exports - contrary to studies relying on quarterly data - and second, that the impact of a real depreciation only ceases to be positive and significant after about two-three years. Four different distributed lag models were considered as potentially adequate and useful to depict the impact of the real exchange rate over time. Even though all four models assumed different underlying lag structures, they all point to the importance of maintaining a competitive real exchange rate over time. The transfer function model is particularly well suited in shaping any lag structure in that it is not presumptive in form.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 14 ()
Pages: 1547-1560

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:14:p:1547-1560
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  1. Cotsomitis, J. & DeBresson, C. & Kwan, A., 1990. "A Re-Examination of the Technology Gap Theory of Trade: Some Evidence from Time Series Data for O.E.C.D. Countries," Papers 90-06, Quebec a Montreal - C.R.E.D.I.T..
  2. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
  3. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February.
  4. Newman, John L. & Lavy, Victor & de Vreyer, Philippe, 1995. "Export and output supply functions with endogenous domestic prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 119-141, February.
  5. Beenstock, Michael & Lavi, Yaakov & Ribon, Sigal, 1994. "The supply and demand for exports in Israel," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 333-350, August.
  6. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-21, May.
  7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
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