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Inflation, real short-term interest rates, and the term structure of interest rates: a regime-switching approach

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  • Li-Hsueh Chen

Abstract

This study explores the implications of the expectations hypothesis by examining the implied term premium, in conjunction with an explicit description of processes generating both inflation and short-term real interest rates., It models inflation and short-term real interest rates using a technique that allows for changes in regimes and generates future forecasts of inflation and real interest rates., The hypothesis is that persistent shifts in the term premium under the expectations hypothesis might come from forecast errors by econometricians if regime shifts are omitted, shifts which are however observed by the agents., This study examines whether persistent shifts in the term premium can be eliminated after taking into account the regime shifts in the processes for inflation and real interest rates., The results indicate that there still exists persistence in the term premium., However the implied term premium generated from regime-switching models shows less persistence than those from ARIMA models., Although the regime-switching model does not reconcile the data with the expectations hypothesis, the results suggest that the persistence of the term premium obtained from a fixed-coefficient ARIMA model may be due in part to systematic forecast errors that are eliminated by allowing for regime changes.,

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Hsueh Chen, 2001. "Inflation, real short-term interest rates, and the term structure of interest rates: a regime-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 393-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:3:p:393-400
    DOI: 10.,1080/00036840122884
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    Cited by:

    1. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
    2. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    3. Li-Hsueh Chen, 2001. "A model for ex ante real interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(11), pages 713-718.
    4. Marco Matsumura & Ajax Moreira, 2011. "Assessing macro influence on Brazilian yield curve with affine models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(15), pages 1847-1863.
    5. Lange, Ronald H., 2010. "Regime-switching monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 782-796, September.
    6. Lange, Ronald H., 2017. "The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
    7. Chien-Chung Nieh & Jeng-Bau Lin & Yu-Shan Wang, 2008. "Regime-switching analysis for the impacts of exchange rate volatility on corporate values: a Taiwanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 491-504.
    8. E. Yuksel & Y. Akdi, 2009. "The effect of different inflation risks on interest rates of the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 169-175.

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