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Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery

Author

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  • David Forrest
  • O. David Gulley
  • Robert Simmons

Abstract

The concept of rational expectations has typically been assumed, without testing, in the analysis of consumer demand and market efficiency in betting markets, including betting on lottery games. Lottery games offer an excellent opportunity to test how participants process the information that is available to them. Using the UK National Lottery as our particular case, we find that participants, in general, efficiently process available information. Specifically, they act as if they can, on average, forecast the level of sales for a given drawing.

Suggested Citation

  • David Forrest & O. David Gulley & Robert Simmons, 2000. "Testing for rational expectations in the UK National Lottery," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 315-326.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:315-326
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322741
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    Cited by:

    1. Jen-Hung Wang & Larry Tzeng & Junji Tien, 2006. "Willingness to pay and the demand for lotto," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1207-1216.
    2. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    3. Paton, David & Siegel, Donald S. & Williams, Leighton Vaughan, 2004. "Taxation and the Demand for Gambling: New Evidence From the United Kingdom," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 57(4), pages 847-861, December.
    4. Chin-Tsai Lin & Chien-Hua Lai, 2006. "Substitute effects between Lotto and Big Lotto in Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 655-658.
    5. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.
    6. Forrest, David & Gulley, O. David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Elasticity of Demand for UK National Lottery Tickets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 4), pages 853-64, December.
    7. Forrest, David & Gulley, O. David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Elasticity of Demand for UK National Lottery Tickets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(4), pages 853-864, December.

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