IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v32y2000i3p265-275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time series analysis of monthly beef cattle prices with nonlinear autoregressive models

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Aguirre
  • Luis Antonio Aguirre

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamics underlying a time series of the monthly average beef cattle price received by producers in the State of Sao Paulo (Brazil). The time series under study records monthly prices since 1954. An exploratory analysis suggested that after a period of intense government intervention in the cattle and beef markets, the underlying dynamics seem to be settling to a pattern similar to the one observed prior to that period. In order to try to verify if the underlying dynamics after the interventionist phase are similar to those in former times, a forecasting procedure has been used based on nonlinear autoregressive models. This tye of models were used after the BDS test showed significant results which can be interpreted as nonlinearities in the data. The results discussed in the paper seem to suggest that after a period of intense interventions that lasted over two decades, the current underlying dynamics are close (from a forecasting point of view) to those observed more than thirty years ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Aguirre & Luis Antonio Aguirre, 2000. "Time series analysis of monthly beef cattle prices with nonlinear autoregressive models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 265-275.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:265-275
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322697
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368400322697
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Aguirre & Luis A. Aguirre, 1997. "Preço da carne de boi gordo: regressão dinâmica com variáveis "dummy" sazonais," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 107, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2004. "Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp235, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Antonio Aguirre & Andreu Sansó, 2002. "Using different null hypotheses to test for seasonal unit roots in economic time series," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0(1-2), pages 3-26, January-D.
    3. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2005. "Optimal Range for the iid Test Based on Integration Across the Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-296.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:3:p:265-275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.