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Consumer confidence announcements: do they matter?

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  • O. David Gulley
  • Jahangir Sultan

Abstract

This paper examines the response of financial markets to consumer confidence announcements during 1980-93. Several hypotheses are tested to examine the impact of consumer confidence announcements on the conditional mean and the conditional volatility of stock, bond and foreign exchange prices. Despite a plethora of causal empiricism in the popular press, consumer confidence appears to influence only the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and not bond or other stock indexes. However, changes in the consumer confidence index are found to have asymmetric effects on the dollar exchange rates of five major currencies. Finally, we find that the impact of the consumer confidence index on the conditional volatility is not uniform across five major currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • O. David Gulley & Jahangir Sultan, 1998. "Consumer confidence announcements: do they matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 155-166.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:8:y:1998:i:2:p:155-166 DOI: 10.1080/096031098333131
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    Cited by:

    1. Nowak, Sylwia & Anderson, Heather M., 2014. "How does public information affect the frequency of trading in airline stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-38.
    2. Roger Best, 2008. "CEO Confidence and Stock Returns," Working Papers 0808, University of Central Missouri, Department of Economics & Finance, revised Aug 2008.
    3. Olorunsola E. Olowofeso & Sani Doguwa, 2013. "Consumer sentiment and confidence indices in Nigeria: a panel data analysis," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 191-216 Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Lilia Karnizova & Hashmat Khan, 2010. "The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 10-08, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2011.
    5. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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