Combining information in exchange rate forecasting: evidence from the EMS
In this paper we propose a multivariate local predictor, inspired in the literature on deterministic chaos, and apply it to nine EMS currencies, using daily data for the January 1973-December 1994 period. Our local predictors perform marginally better than a random walk in forecasting the nominal exchange rate, clearly outperforming the random walk directional forecast.
Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
Issue (Month): 7 ()
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