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Combining information in exchange rate forecasting: evidence from the EMS


  • Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez
  • Simon Sosvilla-Rivero Julian


In this paper we propose a multivariate local predictor, inspired in the literature on deterministic chaos, and apply it to nine EMS currencies, using daily data for the January 1973-December 1994 period. Our local predictors perform marginally better than a random walk in forecasting the nominal exchange rate, clearly outperforming the random walk directional forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero Julian, 1997. "Combining information in exchange rate forecasting: evidence from the EMS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 441-444.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:4:y:1997:i:7:p:441-444 DOI: 10.1080/135048597355221

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Klein,Martin & Neumann,Manfred, "undated". "Seignorage: What is it and who gets it?," Discussion Paper Serie B 124, University of Bonn, Germany.
    2. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, July.
    3. Burdekin, Richard C K, 1991. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 267-269, May.
    4. Poterba, James M & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "Inflation and Taxation with Optimizing Governments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Poterba, James M, 1994. "State Responses to Fiscal Crises: The Effects of Budgetary Institutions and Politics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 799-821, August.
    6. Andrabi, Tahir, 1997. "Seigniorage, Taxation, and Weak Government," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 106-126, February.
    7. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2, January.
    8. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1990. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing in the United States 1914-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 97-112, January.
    9. Edin, Per-Anders & Ohlsson, Henry, 1991. "Political determinants of budget deficits: Coalition effects versus minority effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1597-1603, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1998. "Testing nonlinear forecastability in time series: Theory and evidence from the EMS," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 49-63, April.
    2. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
    3. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, "undated". "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA.
    4. Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero & Maria Dolores Garcia-Artiles, 1997. "Using nearest neighbour predictors to forecast the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 75-91, January.

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