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Liquidity and investor confidence in the turn-of-the-month regularity

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  • John E. Burnett

Abstract

Ogden (1990) offers a compelling explanation for the ubiquitous turn-of-the-month (TOM) seasonality. He hypothesizes and shows that the clustering of payment dates at the end of the month results in a stock return regularity that is related to increased liquidity and monetary policy. This article introduces investor behaviour into Ogden’s TOM liquidity hypothesis where higher TOM returns depend not only on the availability of increased liquidity but also on investors’ willingness to invest new funds. The empirical evidence is consistent with the argument. When confidence is high, investors’ willingness to invest the increased liquidity results in a TOM regularity. But when confidence is low, a TOM regularity is absent as investors park the increased liquidity. This additional measure of investor confidence provides a more complete explanation of Ogden’s liquidity hypothesis.

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  • John E. Burnett, 2017. "Liquidity and investor confidence in the turn-of-the-month regularity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 273-278, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:4:p:273-278
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1184218
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Árendáš & Jana Kotlebová, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets and the Turn of the month effect," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(3), pages 101-108.
    2. Daniel Agyapong & Theophilus Sakyiamah Atuah & Anthony Asare- Adu Idun, 2020. "Calendar Effect and Returns of Listed Companies on the Ghana Stock Exchange: A DOLS and GARCH Modelling," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(8), pages 920-935, August.
    3. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.

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