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On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

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  • Massimiliano Caporin
  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

Abstract

In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall (ES). These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution. In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on MES. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of MES by means of a second-order approximation.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Caporin & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2012. "On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 175-179, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:2:p:175-179
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.570704
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Zeldea, 2020. "Modeling the Connection between Bank Systemic Risk and Balance-Sheet Liquidity Proxies through Random Forest Regressions," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-14, August.

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