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Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case

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  • José Alves
  • José Campos
  • Jacques Servain

Abstract

This study investigated the sensitivity of a dynamic downscaling atmospheric model system coupled with a rainfall-runoff model to hindcast an example of reservoir water management in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB). A regional atmospheric spectral model (RSM) is driven by the outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), itself forced by the observed sea surface temperature over the World Ocean. Daily precipitation simulated by the RSM was then used as the input to a hydrological rainfall-runoff model for the Upper Jaguaribe River Basin to estimate inflows at the Orós Reservoir in the state of Ceará. A hindcast analysis of precipitation was performed during the rainy season over NEB (January to June) from 1971 to 2000. The RSM captured the precipitation variability relatively well when a probability density function (PDF) was used to correct the numerical bias. Three hindcast series of inflow using (i) the observed rainfall, (ii) the simulated rainfall before the PDF correction, and (iii) the simulated rainfall after the PDF correction were performed during the study period and then compared to the series of observed inflow. The atmospheric-rainfall-runoff “cascade” model efficiency was evaluated by comparing the Orós Reservoir release decisions from different scenarios based on observed, simulated (RSM, RSM-PDF), and mean historical reservoir inflows. The cascade model has the potential, relatively well balanced during dry, normal or wet years, to be a useful tool to correctly forecast the decision managements of reservoirs in the semi-arid region of NEB. Additional progress in the numerical simulation is however necessary to improve the performance. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • José Alves & José Campos & Jacques Servain, 2012. "Reservoir Management Using Coupled Atmospheric and Hydrological Models: The Brazilian Semi-Arid Case," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(5), pages 1365-1385, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:5:p:1365-1385
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9963-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Konstantine Georgakakos & Deg-Hyo Bae & Chang-Sam Jeong, 2005. "Utility of Ten-Day Climate Model Ensemble Simulations for Water Resources Applications in Korean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(6), pages 849-872, December.
    2. José Campos, 2010. "Modeling the Yield–Evaporation–Spill in the Reservoir Storage Process: The Regulation Triangle Diagram," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3487-3511, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helge Bormann & Oliver Caspari, 2015. "On the Value of Hydrological Models Developed in the Context of Undergraduate Education for Discharge Prediction and Reservoir Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3569-3584, August.
    2. Tao Bai & Lei Li & Peng-fei Mu & Bao-zhu Pan & Jin Liu, 2023. "Impact of Climate Change on Water Transfer Scale of Inter-basin Water Diversion Project," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2505-2525, May.

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