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Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning

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  • Mohammad Karamouz
  • Sanaz Imen
  • Sara Nazif

Abstract

In recent years, droughts with increasing severity and frequency have been experienced around the world due to climate change effects. Water planning and management during droughts needs to deal with water demand variability, uncertainties in streamflow prediction, conflicts over water resources allocation, and the absence of necessary emergency schemes in drought situations. Reservoirs could play an important role in drought mitigation; therefore, development of an algorithm for operation of reservoirs in drought periods could help to mitigate the drought impacts by reducing the expected water shortages. For this purpose, the probable drought’s characteristics and their variations in response to factors such as climate change should be incorporated. This study aims at developing a contingency planning scheme for operation of reservoirs in drought periods using hedging rules with the objective of decreasing the maximum water deficit. The case study for evaluation of the performance of the proposed algorithm is the Sattarkhan reservoir in the Aharchay watershed, located in the northwestern part of Iran. The trend evaluations of the hydro-climatic variables show that the climate change has already affected streamflow in the region and has increased water scarcity and drought severity. To incorporate the climate change study in reservoir planning; streamflow should be simulated under climate change impacts. For this purpose, the climatic variables including temperature and precipitation in the future under climate change impacts are simulated using downscaled GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs to derive scenarios for possible future drought events. Then a hydrological model is developed to simulate the river streamflow, based on the downscaled data. The results show that the proposed methodology leads to less water deficit and decreases the drought damages in the study area. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Karamouz & Sanaz Imen & Sara Nazif, 2012. "Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 329-357, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:2:p:329-357
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9920-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davar Khalili & Tohid Farnoud & Hamed Jamshidi & Ali Kamgar-Haghighi & Shahrokh Zand-Parsa, 2011. "Comparability Analyses of the SPI and RDI Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(6), pages 1737-1757, April.
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    1. Gholamreza Roshan & AbdolAzim Ghanghermeh & Touraj Nasrabadi & Jafar Meimandi, 2013. "Effect of Global Warming on Intensity and Frequency Curves of Precipitation, Case Study of Northwestern Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1563-1579, March.
    2. Beshavard, Mahdi & Adib, Arash & Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad & Kisi, Ozgur, 2022. "Establishing effective warning storage to derive optimal reservoir operation policy based on the drought condition," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 274(C).
    3. Mike Spiliotis & Luis Mediero & Luis Garrote, 2016. "Optimization of Hedging Rules for Reservoir Operation During Droughts Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5759-5778, December.
    4. Iman Ahmadianfar & Reza Zamani, 2020. "Assessment of the hedging policy on reservoir operation for future drought conditions under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 253-268, March.
    5. Seung Beom Seo & Young-Oh Kim & Shin-Uk Kang, 2019. "Time-Varying Discrete Hedging Rules for Drought Contingency Plan Considering Long-Range Dependency in Streamflow," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2791-2807, June.

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