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Economic Power: Long-Term Development Prospects for Russia and the United States in a Multipolar World

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  • M. Yu. Beletskaya

    (G. Arbatov Institute for US and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

The article examines the concepts of economic power and multipolarity, highlighting the category of “emerging countries” with actively restructuring, competing, and growing economies. The use of forecast estimates by the OECD, the United Nations, domestic sources, and additional calculations made it possible for us to analyze the trajectories of economic development in Russia, the United States, and a number of other countries over 1960–2060. A graphical representation of development trajectories in the form of “sprout” diagrams is proposed, which show the positions of countries in terms of GDP and the impact of the working-age population size on their development trajectories. The characteristics of efficiency and productivity determined by the ratio of GDP to the working-age population size are compared. Quantitative estimates for the size of this population group are presented as well as for efficiency and productivity within the considered period for Russia and a number of other countries relative to the United States. Conclusions are formulated regarding long-term trends in the development of the global economy.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Yu. Beletskaya, 2025. "Economic Power: Long-Term Development Prospects for Russia and the United States in a Multipolar World," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-9, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:36:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1134_s1075700724700473
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724700473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yvan Guillemette & Jean Château, 2023. "Long-term scenarios: incorporating the energy transition," OECD Economic Policy Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
    2. Harasty, Claire. & Ostermeier, Martin., 2020. "Population ageing alternative measures of dependency and implications for the future of work," ILO Working Papers 995078791102676, International Labour Organization.
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