Migration to Scotland from the EU8 countries

Immigrants represent a significant component of Scotland's social structure, economic development and demographic growth. Scottish politics perceives immigration as an opportunity and, in certain instances, as the sole viable solution to the country’s declining population. In 2004, EU8 citizens accounted for 18% of immigrants in Scotland. The peak was reached in 2007 at 54%, before a decline to 2% in 2022, returning to the level seen in 2002. These drastic shifts make the topic interesting and worthy of in-depth study. The article aims to empirically analyse the changes in migration from the EU8 countries to Scotland and to determine the major drivers. A panel data model was used to identify the impact of macroeconomic factors on migration trends. The findings reveal significant variations in migration patterns among the EU8 countries, with Poles constituting the largest immigrant group in Scotland. The study identifies a strong positive relationship between immigration levels and factors such as unemployment rates and investment levels (by institutional sectors and households) in the countries of origin, as well as the average wages in the destination country. While economic growth in the EU8 countries, Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic have been identified as contributing factors to the observed decline in immigration to Scotland. In view of these developments, the Scottish Government should consider modifying its migration policy in order to attract and retain immigrants.