Modeling boardings and alightings by route at transit stops

This research develops stop-level models for boardings and alightings by route for fixed route bus-based services. All previous research on stop-level ridership models has captured the effect of land use or socioeconomics only in the proximity of the subject stop. However, this study also captures the effect of land use in the proximity of transit stops that are located downstream or upstream of the subject stop. We have used ridership data from 1188 transit stops in the city of Gainesville (Florida, USA) for the month of October 2019 (pre-pandemic sample). The models indicate that boardings/alightings at a stop can change not only because of land-use changes in the vicinity of the stop but also because of the changes downstream/upstream of the stop along the transit route. The models also capture the effect of opportunities for transfers upstream/downstream of the subject stop on the alightings and boardings at the subject stop. All these additional empirical insights were obtained after controlling for service characteristics and land-use and socio-economic factors in the vicinity of the stops and variables capturing the service characteristics.