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Benefit analysis of flood adaptation under climate change scenario

Author

Listed:
  • Hsin-Chi Li

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction)

  • Shih-Yun Kuo

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction)

  • Wei-Bo Chen

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction)

  • Lee-yaw Lin

    (National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction)

Abstract

Typhoon Morakot of 2009 caused the worst flooding in the history of Taiwan. Because research on climate change has indicated that similar extreme disasters are expected to become more frequent, this study investigated adaptation projects for mitigating the impact of such disasters in the future. It used Typhoon Morakot as an example and applied the pseudo-global warming method for simulating the impact of a Morakot-level typhoon plus warming effects to analyze the flood losses caused by increasing precipitation. For this study, Tainan City, a city severely damaged by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, was chosen as a demonstration area to evaluate the optimal adaptation measures by cost–benefit analysis methods. The results showed that the precipitation will increase as much as 60% in the Tainan region at the end of this century and that in the future the inundation area in Tainan will see a 10.4% increase beyond the flooding caused by Typhoon Morakot. Fifteen combinations of adaptation projects were provided to reduce future flood losses. Finally, a composite adaptation project combining riverbed dredging and improved plans for evacuation and sheltering was determined to be the optimal option, as it could create a net benefit of as much as 27 million US dollars in the 60 years of engineering service life for Tainan City.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsin-Chi Li & Shih-Yun Kuo & Wei-Bo Chen & Lee-yaw Lin, 2019. "Benefit analysis of flood adaptation under climate change scenario," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 547-568, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:95:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3500-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3500-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hsin-Chi Li & Yi-Hua Hsiao & Chia-Wei Chang & Yung-Ming Chen & Lee-Yaw Lin, 2021. "Agriculture Adaptation Options for Flood Impacts under Climate Change—A Simulation Analysis in the Dajia River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-14, June.

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