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A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake

Author

Listed:
  • Susan E. Hough

    (United States Geological Survey (USGS))

  • Stacey S. Martin

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Vineet Gahalaut

    (Ministry of Earth Sciences)

  • Anand Joshi

    (Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee)

  • M. Landes

    (c/o Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique Centre DAM Ile de France)

  • R. Bossu

    (c/o Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique Centre DAM Ile de France)

Abstract

We use 21 strong motion recordings from Nepal and India for the 25 April 2015 moment magnitude (MW) 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake together with the extensive macroseismic intensity data set presented by Martin et al. (Seism Res Lett 87:957–962, 2015) to analyse the distribution of ground motions at near-field and regional distances. We show that the data are consistent with the instrumental peak ground acceleration (PGA) versus macroseismic intensity relationship developed by Worden et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 102:204–221, 2012), and use this relationship to estimate peak ground acceleration from intensities (PGAEMS). For nearest-fault distances (RRUP 200 km), instrumental PGA values are consistent with this GMPE, while PGAEMS is systematically higher. We suggest the latter reflects a duration effect whereby effects of weak shaking are enhanced by long-duration and/or long-period ground motions from a large event at regional distances. We use PGAEMS values within 200 km to investigate the variability of high-frequency ground motions using the Atkinson and Boore (Bull Seism Soc Am 93:1703–1729, 2003) GMPE as a baseline. Across the near-field region, PGAEMS is higher by a factor of 2.0–2.5 towards the northern, down-dip edge of the rupture compared to the near-field region nearer to the southern, up-dip edge of the rupture. Inferred deamplification in the deepest part of the Kathmandu valley supports the conclusion that former lake-bed sediments experienced a pervasive nonlinear response during the mainshock (Dixit et al. in Seismol Res Lett 86(6):1533–1539, 2015; Rajaure et al. in Tectonophysics, 2016. Ground motions were significantly amplified in the southern Gangetic basin, but were relatively low in the northern basin. The overall distribution of ground motions and damage during the Gorkha earthquake thus reflects a combination of complex source, path, and site effects. We also present a macroseismic intensity data set and analysis of ground motions for the MW7.3 Dolakha aftershock on 12 May 2015, which we compare to the Gorkha mainshock and conclude was likely a high stress-drop event.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan E. Hough & Stacey S. Martin & Vineet Gahalaut & Anand Joshi & M. Landes & R. Bossu, 2016. "A comparison of observed and predicted ground motions from the 2015 MW7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1661-1684, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:84:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2505-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2505-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hemchandra Chaulagain & Hugo Rodrigues & Vitor Silva & Enrico Spacone & Humberto Varum, 2015. "Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 583-602, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenhao Shen & Dinghui Yang & Xiwei Xu & Shuxin Yang & Shaolin Liu, 2022. "3D simulation of ground motion for the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, based on the spectral element method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2853-2871, July.
    2. Saman Yaghmaei-Sabegh & Hongwei Wang, 2022. "Aftershock ground motion characteristics during the 2012 Varzaghan–Ahar doublet events, northwest of Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2579-2599, April.

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