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Climate change influence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin with Mediterranean climate

Author

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  • M. Ramos
  • J. Martínez-Casasnovas

Abstract

The present research shows the results of possible effects of climate change on runoff and soil loss in a rainfed basin located in the Alt Penedès and Anoia region (NE Spain). Viticulture is an important economic activity in this region, and vines for the production of high-quality wines and “cavas” are the main land use. Climate data for the period 2000–2012 and detailed soil and land use maps were used as input data for soil and water assessment tool to model the effects of climate change. The analysis compared simulated results for years with different climatic conditions during that period with predicted temperature and precipitation data for 2020, 2050 and 2080 based on data obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3, A2 scenario and the trends observed in the area. The research confirmed the difficulty of predicting future soil loss in this region, which has very high inter-annual climate variability. Despite only small changes in precipitation, the model simulated a decrease in soil loss associated with a decrease in runoff, mainly driven by an increase in evapotranspiration. However, the trend in soil losses may vary when changes in precipitation balance the increase in evapotranspiration and when rainfall intensity increases. An increase in maximum rainfall intensity in spring and autumn (main rainy seasons) produced significant increases in soil loss: as high as 12 % for the 2020 scenario and 57 % for the 2050 scenario. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ramos & J. Martínez-Casasnovas, 2015. "Climate change influence on runoff and soil losses in a rainfed basin with Mediterranean climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(2), pages 1065-1089, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:78:y:2015:i:2:p:1065-1089
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1759-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Nektarios N. Kourgialas & Georgios C. Koubouris & George P. Karatzas & Ioannis Metzidakis, 2016. "Assessing water erosion in Mediterranean tree crops using GIS techniques and field measurements: the effect of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(1), pages 65-81, October.
    3. Maurizio Lazzari & Marco Piccarreta, 2023. "Soil Erosion vs. Vineyard Productivity: The Case of the Aglianico del Vulture DOC and DOCG Areas (Southern Italy)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Santiago Fernández-Rodríguez & Pablo Durán-Barroso & Inmaculada Silva-Palacios & Rafael Tormo-Molina & José María Maya-Manzano & Ángela Gonzalo-Garijo, 2016. "Forecast model of allergenic hazard using trends of Poaceae airborne pollen over an urban area in SW Iberian Peninsula (Europe)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 121-137, October.

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