IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v75y2015i3p2577-2587.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • J. Wang
  • H. Kuo-Chen

Abstract

Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities based on fault length and slip rate, along with an earthquake empirical model subject to a model error of 0.26 M w . The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed M w 7.0, considering the length and slip rate of the Sanchiao fault are equal to 36 km and 2 ± 1 mm per year. By contrast, the other case study shows that for the Meishan fault in central Taiwan, the probability is “only” 4 % for earthquake magnitude to exceed M w 7.0, given a shorter fault length of 14 km and a larger slip rate of 6 ± 3 mm per year. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • J. Wang & H. Kuo-Chen, 2015. "On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2577-2587, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:3:p:2577-2587
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1448-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1448-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1448-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chi-Hsuan Chen & Jui-Pin Wang & Yih-Min Wu & Chung-Han Chan & Chien-Hsin Chang, 2013. "A study of earthquake inter-occurrence times distribution models in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1335-1350, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yun Xu & J. P. Wang, 2017. "Earthquake recurrence assessment of the active Shanchiao Fault in northern Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 835-851, September.
    2. Jyh-Woei Lin, 2020. "Researching significant earthquakes in Taiwan using two back-propagation neural network models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3563-3590, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sutapa Chaudhuri & Arumita Roy Chowdhury & Payel Das, 2018. "Implementation of Sugeno: ANFIS for forecasting the seismic moment of large earthquakes over Indo-Himalayan region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 391-405, January.
    2. Sumanta Pasari & Onkar Dikshit, 2014. "Three-parameter generalized exponential distribution in earthquake recurrence interval estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 639-656, September.
    3. J. Wang, 2016. "Reviews of seismicity around Taiwan: Weibull distribution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1651-1668, February.
    4. Sumanta Pasari & Onkar Dikshit, 2018. "Stochastic earthquake interevent time modeling from exponentiated Weibull distributions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 823-842, January.
    5. J. P. Wang, 2016. "Reviews of seismicity around Taiwan: Weibull distribution," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1651-1668, February.
    6. Spyridon M. Tzaninis & Nikolaos D. Macheras, 2020. "A characterization of progressively equivalent probability measures preserving the structure of a compound mixed renewal process," Papers 2007.05289, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:3:p:2577-2587. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.