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Three-parameter generalized exponential distribution in earthquake recurrence interval estimation

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  • Sumanta Pasari
  • Onkar Dikshit

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to study the three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) generalized exponential (GE) distribution and examine its suitability in probabilistic earthquake recurrence modeling. The GE distribution shares many physical properties of the gamma and Weibull distributions. This distribution, unlike the exponential distribution, overcomes the burden of memoryless property. For shape parameter β> 1, the GE distribution offers increasing hazard function, which is in accordance with the elastic rebound theory of earthquake generation. In the present study, we consider a real, complete, and homogeneous earthquake catalog of 20 events with magnitude above 7.0 (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010 ) from northeast India and its adjacent regions (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) to analyze earthquake inter-occurrence time from the GE distribution. We apply the modified maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate model parameters. We then perform a number of goodness-of-fit tests to evaluate the suitability of the GE model to other competitive models, such as the gamma and Weibull models. It is observed that for the present data set, the GE distribution has a better and more economical representation than the gamma and Weibull distributions. Finally, a few conditional probability curves (hazard curves) are presented to demonstrate the significance of the GE distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Sumanta Pasari & Onkar Dikshit, 2014. "Three-parameter generalized exponential distribution in earthquake recurrence interval estimation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 639-656, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:73:y:2014:i:2:p:639-656
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1092-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chi-Hsuan Chen & Jui-Pin Wang & Yih-Min Wu & Chung-Han Chan & Chien-Hsin Chang, 2013. "A study of earthquake inter-occurrence times distribution models in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1335-1350, December.
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