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Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

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  • Khandker Tasnim
  • Tomoya Shibayama
  • Miguel Esteban
  • Hiroshi Takagi
  • Koichiro Ohira
  • Ryota Nakamura

Abstract

Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in the future. To understand the threats that these events pose, a summary of the field surveys performed in Yangon River Basin after cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 is presented. Though due to government restrictions survey activities were limited to the area near Yangon city, it was found out that the tide due to the storm surge was probably between 3 and 4 m high and travelled around 50 km upstream of the river mouth of Yangon River. Cyclone Nargis could be accurately reproduced using a numerical model that integrated weather, wave, coastal ocean models, and tide prediction system. The application of such an integrated model is relatively new for storm surge simulation and has never been used for the Bay of Bengal storms. The model was then used to also simulate future cyclones over the Bay of Bengal considering a future climate change scenario. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Khandker Tasnim & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Hiroshi Takagi & Koichiro Ohira & Ryota Nakamura, 2015. "Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1619-1647, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:75:y:2015:i:2:p:1619-1647
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1387-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Mäll & Ryota Nakamura & Ülo Suursaar & Tomoya Shibayama, 2020. "Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 67-99, May.
    2. F. Vieira & G. Cavalcante & E. Campos, 2021. "Simulation of cyclonic wave conditions in the Gulf of Oman," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 2203-2217, January.
    3. Fei Liu & Jun Sasaki & Jundong Chen & Yulong Wang, 2022. "Numerical assessment of coastal multihazard vulnerability in Tokyo Bay," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3597-3625, December.
    4. Sayaka Hoshino & Miguel Esteban & Takahito Mikami & Hiroshi Takagi & Tomoya Shibayama, 2016. "Estimation of increase in storm surge damage due to climate change and sea level rise in the Greater Tokyo area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 539-565, January.
    5. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    6. Zhaoqing Yang & Sourav Taraphdar & Taiping Wang & L. Ruby Leung & Molly Grear, 2016. "Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1161-1184, November.
    7. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1797-1818, April.
    8. Ryota Nakamura & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2019. "Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 391-422, October.
    9. Wen-Cheng Liu & Wei-Che Huang, 2021. "Tide–surge and wave interaction around the Taiwan coast: insight from Typhoon Nepartak in 2016," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1881-1904, June.
    10. Maqsood Mansur & Julia Hopkins & Qin Chen, 2023. "Estuarine response to storm surge and sea-level rise associated with channel deepening: a flood vulnerability assessment of southwest Louisiana, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3879-3897, April.
    11. Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Takumu Iwamoto, 2016. "Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1645-1681, July.
    12. Martin Mäll & Ülo Suursaar & Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1119-1144, December.

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