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Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents

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  • S. Arun Kumar

  • K. Prasad

Abstract

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in important locations along east and west coasts of India for the period 2000–2010. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their spatial distributions. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern India, with a non-uniform spatial distribution. August and October are identified as most favorable for rip current generation. In India, rip current-related drowning is estimated as 39 per year during the last decade. East coast of India averaged 30–40 drownings, and west coast of India averaged 5–10 drownings per year. In coastal Andhra Pradesh, more than 350 people had been drowned due to rip currents and only 10 people were rescued. Visakhapatnam recorded highest drowning (293); R. K. beach is the most vulnerable potential rip current zones. From 2007 onward, rip current deaths increased at an alarming rate. The frequency of rip current drownings increased markedly during shore-normal wave incidence and mid-low tidal stages. A new empirical forecasting technique has been developed for prediction of rip current risk in India for the first time. FORTRAN-based software was developed to generate automatic rip current forecast report for any given location. The scale’s performance was tested with field data and by using different statistical methods. The new predictive scale is predicting rip current occurrences reasonably well. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • S. Arun Kumar & K. Prasad, 2014. "Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 313-335, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:70:y:2014:i:1:p:313-335
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0812-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Victor Gensini & Walker Ashley, 2010. "An examination of rip current fatalities in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(1), pages 159-175, July.
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    1. Daoheng Zhu & Zhiqiang Li & Pengpeng Hu & Bingfu Wang & Qianxin Su & Gaocong Li, 2023. "Preliminary Investigation and Analysis of Beachgoers’ Awareness of Rip Currents in South China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Muhammad Zubir Yusof & Muhammad Zahir Ramli & Siti Fairuz Che Othman & Yusairah Amani Mohd Aliziyad & Juliana Mohamed & Muhammad Faiz Pa’suya & Abdul Nasir Abdul Ghafar & Waheb A. Jabbar, 2023. "Public understanding of rip current and beach safety at Teluk Cempedak Recreational Beach in Pahang, Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 489-506, January.
    3. McKay, Campbell & Brander, Robert W. & Goff, James, 2014. "Putting tourists in harms way – Coastal tourist parks and hazardous unpatrolled surf beaches in New South Wales, Australia," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 71-84.
    4. William Koon & Robert W Brander & Gregory Dusek & Bruno Castelle & Jasmin C Lawes, 2023. "Relationships between the tide and fatal drowning at surf beaches in New South Wales, Australia: Implications for coastal safety management and practice," Post-Print hal-04266306, HAL.
    5. Sabri Alkan & Uğur Karadurmuş, 2023. "Risk assessment of natural and other hazard factors on drowning incidents in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2459-2475, September.
    6. Nur Adawiyah Mohammed Isa & Muhammad Zahir Ramli & Siti Fairuz Che Othman & Muhammad Zubir Yusof, 2021. "A preliminary studies to assess public knowledge of beach safety in east coast Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(1), pages 873-887, May.
    7. Luigi Mucerino & Luca Carpi & Chiara F. Schiaffino & Enzo Pranzini & Eleonora Sessa & Marco Ferrari, 2021. "Rip current hazard assessment on a sandy beach in Liguria, NW Mediterranean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 137-156, January.
    8. A. Dana Ménard & Chris Houser & Robert W. Brander & Sarah Trimble & Alexandra Scaman, 2018. "The psychology of beach users: importance of confirmation bias, action, and intention to improving rip current safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 953-973, November.
    9. Chris Houser & Brent Vlodarchyk & Phil Wernette, 2019. "Short communication: public interest in rip currents relative to other natural hazards: evidence from Google search data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1395-1405, July.
    10. Warton, Nicola M. & Brander, Robert W., 2017. "Improving tourist beach safety awareness: The benefits of watching Bondi Rescue," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 187-200.
    11. Ch Venkateswarlu & V. V. Arun Kumar Surisetty & Ankit Somani & B. Gireesh & C. V. Naidu, 2023. "Surf zone-related drownings and injuries based on lifeguard records in Goa beaches (2008–2020)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(1), pages 313-337, May.

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