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Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008

Author

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  • Bhishma Tyagi
  • V. Naresh Krishna
  • A. Satyanarayana

Abstract

The pre-monsoon convective atmosphere over Kolkata (22.52°N, 88.37°E) during STORM field phase 2006–2008 is investigated using 12 UTC radiosonde data and thermodynamic indices. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the skill of various indices and parameters and to propose suitable threshold values in forecasting the occurrence of thunderstorm activity at Kolkata. The thermodynamic indices and parameters used in the present study are lifted index (LI), K index (KI), severe weather threat index (SWEAT), total totals index (TTI), convective available potential energy (CAPE), deep convection index (DCI), humidity index (HI), Boyden index (BI), dew point temperature at 850 hpa (DEW), relative humidity at 700 hpa (RH), and bulk Richardson number (BRN). Validation of the suggested threshold values of indices was conducted on the days of thunderstorm activity. It was found that one index alone cannot predict the occurrence of thunderstorm over Kolkata region. The present study suggests that the indices with highest skill for thunderstorm prediction are KI, DCI, SWEAT, DEW, HI, RH, LI, TTI, while the prediction efficiency is poor for CAPE, BRN, and BI. Observed values of these indices also reveal that scattered, multi-cellular thunderstorms are possible over Kolkata during pre-monsoon months. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Bhishma Tyagi & V. Naresh Krishna & A. Satyanarayana, 2011. "Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 681-698, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:56:y:2011:i:3:p:681-698
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9582-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Murad Ahmed Farukh & Md. Azharul Islam & Md. Nasir Uddin, 2023. "Synoptic climatology of pre-monsoon frequent lightning events in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1053-1070, March.
    2. Kumari Priya & Raghu Nadimpalli & Krishna K. Osuri, 2021. "Do increasing horizontal resolution and downscaling approaches produce a skillful thunderstorm forecast?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1655-1674, November.
    3. Rajesh Kumar Sahu & Jiteshwar Dadich & Bhishma Tyagi & Naresh Krishna Vissa & Jyotsna Singh, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1541-1569, July.

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