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Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India

Author

Listed:
  • Rajesh Kumar Sahu

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Jiteshwar Dadich

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Bhishma Tyagi

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Naresh Krishna Vissa

    (National Institute of Technology Rourkela)

  • Jyotsna Singh

    (Shanti Raj Bhawan)

Abstract

The present study analyses thermodynamic indices variation over three sites of eastern Indian region: Bhubaneswar, Kolkata and Ranchi, associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms for 20-year period (1987–2006) for Bhubaneswar and Kolkata and 15 years (1996–2010) for Ranchi. All three sites are showing a rise in humidity over the period, unveiling the climate change over the region. We evaluated the threshold values of various thermodynamic indices for periods of 5-year intervals at each site based on skill score analysis. The indices associated with potential, convective, latent instability and moisture are showing varying threshold values over all the sites, and some of the indices are showing a definite increase/decrease in these threshold values. All three sites are showing a decrease in thunderstorm frequency over the study period. The work identifies the thermodynamic indices, which tend to capture the global warming impact in the threshold values by either showing an increase or decrease with the time at each site. The results advocate that for a long-term analysis of thermodynamic indices, the threshold values may change from one period to another.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajesh Kumar Sahu & Jiteshwar Dadich & Bhishma Tyagi & Naresh Krishna Vissa & Jyotsna Singh, 2020. "Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1541-1569, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:102:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03978-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03978-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Madhuparna Halder & P. Mukhopadhyay, 2016. "Microphysical processes and hydrometeor distributions associated with thunderstorms over India: WRF (cloud-resolving) simulations and validations using TRMM," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 1125-1155, September.
    2. Bhishma Tyagi & V. Naresh Krishna & A. Satyanarayana, 2011. "Study of thermodynamic indices in forecasting pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Kolkata during STORM pilot phase 2006–2008," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(3), pages 681-698, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md. Abul Kalam Azad & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Md. Siddiqur Rahman & Kurratul Ayen, 2021. "Development of novel hybrid machine learning models for monthly thunderstorm frequency prediction over Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1109-1135, August.

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