IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v50y2009i3p461-477.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome

Author

Listed:
  • Benedetto Calvo
  • Fabrizio Savi

Abstract

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Benedetto Calvo & Fabrizio Savi, 2009. "Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 461-477, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:50:y:2009:i:3:p:461-477
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-008-9312-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-008-9312-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-008-9312-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Cin & L. Moens & PH. Dierickx & G. Bastin & Y. Zech, 2005. "An Integrated Approach for Realtime Floodmap Forecasting on the Belgian Meuse River," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 36(1), pages 237-256, September.
    2. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang, 1997. "A Probability-Based Renewal Rainfall Model for Flow Forecasting," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 15(1), pages 51-70, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhangjun Liu & Shenglian Guo & Honggang Zhang & Dedi Liu & Guang Yang, 2016. "Comparative Study of Three Updating Procedures for Real-Time Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(7), pages 2111-2126, May.
    2. Phuoc Nguyen & Lloyd Chua & Lam Son, 2014. "Flood forecasting in large rivers with data-driven models," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 767-784, March.
    3. Wen-Cheng Liu & Chung-Yi Wu, 2011. "Flash flood routing modeling for levee-breaks and overbank flows due to typhoon events in a complicated river system," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1057-1076, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lan Yu & Soon Keat Tan & Lloyd H. C. Chua, 2017. "Online Ensemble Modeling for Real Time Water Level Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1105-1119, March.
    2. Bagher Shirmohammadi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Vahid Moosavi & Alireza Moghaddamnia, 2013. "Application of Several Data-Driven Techniques for Predicting Groundwater Level," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 419-432, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:50:y:2009:i:3:p:461-477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.