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Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Hydrology – Scenario-Based Modelling Studies in the German Rhine Catchment

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  • Lucas Menzel
  • Annegret Thieken
  • Daniel Schwandt
  • Gerd Bürger

Abstract

The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area of approx. 110,000 km 2 . This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (“business as usual”) are then used as input to the method of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However, the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. Copyright Springer 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Menzel & Annegret Thieken & Daniel Schwandt & Gerd Bürger, 2006. "Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Hydrology – Scenario-Based Modelling Studies in the German Rhine Catchment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 45-61, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:38:y:2006:i:1:p:45-61
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-005-8599-z
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyan Wang & Tao Yang & Chong-Yu Xu & Lihua Xiong & Pengfei Shi & Zhenya Li, 2020. "The response of runoff components and glacier mass balance to climate change for a glaciated high-mountainous catchment in the Tianshan Mountains," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1239-1258, November.
    2. Valentina Krysanova & Fred F. Hattermann, 2017. "Intercomparison of climate change impacts in 12 large river basins: overview of methods and summary of results," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 363-379, April.
    3. Iglesias, Ana & Garrote, Luis, 2015. "Adaptation strategies for agricultural water management under climate change in Europe," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 113-124.
    4. Saskia Pelt & Rob Swart, 2011. "Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3837-3861, November.
    5. Woonsup Choi & Sung Kim & Mark Lee & Kristina Koenig & Peter Rasmussen, 2014. "Hydrological Impacts of Warmer and Wetter Climate in Troutlake and Sturgeon River Basins in Central Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5319-5333, December.
    6. Bruno Merz & Jana Friedrich & Markus Disse & Jochen Schwarz & Johann Goldammer & Jochen Wächter, 2006. "Possibilities and Limitations of Interdisciplinary, User-oriented Research: Experiences from the German Research Network Natural Disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 3-20, May.

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