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Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

Author

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  • EVGUENI KULIKOV
  • ALEXANDER RABINOVICH
  • RICHARD THOMSON

Abstract

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iida’s method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the “averaged” and “maximum” seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the “seismic gap” theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile. Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Evgueni Kulikov & Alexander Rabinovich & Richard Thomson, 2005. "Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 35(2), pages 185-209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:35:y:2005:i:2:p:185-209
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-004-4809-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saurabh Prabhu & Mohammad Javanbarg & Marc Lehmann & Sez Atamturktur, 2019. "Multi-peril risk assessment for business downtime of industrial facilities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 1327-1356, July.
    2. Pankaj Bhardwaj & Omvir Singh & R. B. S. Yadav, 2020. "Probabilistic assessment of tropical cyclones’ extreme wind speed in the Bay of Bengal: implications for future cyclonic hazard," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 101(1), pages 275-295, March.
    3. Mohammad Heidarzadeh & Moharram Pirooz & Nasser Zaker & Ahmet Yalciner, 2009. "Preliminary estimation of the tsunami hazards associated with the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(2), pages 229-243, February.
    4. R. Jelínek & E. Krausmann & M. González & J. Álvarez-Gómez & J. Birkmann & T. Welle, 2012. "Approaches for tsunami risk assessment and application to the city of Cádiz, Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 273-293, January.
    5. Jin‐Feng Wang & Lian‐Fa Li, 2008. "Improving Tsunami Warning Systems with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Input," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(6), pages 1653-1668, December.
    6. Claudia Prezzi & Virginia Silbergleit, 2015. "Seismic hazards along Ecuador, Perú and northern Chile (South America)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1159-1175, November.
    7. Virginia Silbergleit & Claudia Prezzi, 2012. "Statistics of major Chilean earthquakes recurrence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 445-458, June.
    8. Eric Geist & Tom Parsons, 2014. "Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 565-595, June.

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