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Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea, Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction

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  • P. Dimitriu
  • E. Scordilis
  • V. Karacostas

Abstract

Two-dimensional multifractal analysis is performed in a seismic area of Northern Greece responsible for recent strong earthquakes, including the Arnea sequence of May 1995, culminating in a M w 5.3 event on 4/5/1995. It is found that multifractality gradually increases prior to the major seismic activity and that declusterization replaces clusterization not long before its initialization. The fractal dimensions D(q) (q > 0) abruptly drop for aftershocks, reflecting their very strong spatial clustering. The observed seismicity patterns seem to be compatible with a percolation process. Before the main sequence, the fractal dimension is consistently in the range 1.67–1.96 (standard deviation included). Percolation theory predicts 1.9 for 2D percolation clusters and 1.8 for the backbone of 3D percolation clusters. If the observed gradual increase in multifractality is due to multifractality reaching a maximum prior to the major slip (percolation), this may enable us to roughly estimate its time of occurrence. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2000

Suggested Citation

  • P. Dimitriu & E. Scordilis & V. Karacostas, 2000. "Multifractal Analysis of the Arnea, Greece Seismicity with Potential Implications for Earthquake Prediction," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 21(2), pages 277-295, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:21:y:2000:i:2:p:277-295
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008178929448
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sahimi, Muhammad & Robertson, Michelle C. & Sammis, Charles G., 1992. "Relation between the earthquake statistics and fault patterns, and fractals and percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    2. Blacher, Silvia & Brouers, François & Ananthakrishna, G., 1992. "Multifractal analysis, a method to investigate the morphology of materials," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 28-34.
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    Cited by:

    1. Iliopoulos, A. & Chorozoglou, D. & Kourouklas, C. & Mangira, O. & Papadimitriou, E., 2020. "Memory and renewal aging of strong earthquakes in Hellenic seismicity," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. I. Georgoudas & G. Sirakoulis & E. Scordilis & I. Andreadis, 2009. "On-chip earthquake simulation model using potentials," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 50(3), pages 519-537, September.

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