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Meteorological analysis of an extreme pyroconvective wildfire at Dunalley-Forcett, Australia

Author

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  • Ivana Čavlina Tomašević

    (Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service)

  • Paul Fox-Hughes

    (Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Kevin K. W. Cheung

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Paul J. Beggs

    (Macquarie University)

  • Višnjica Vučetić

    (Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service)

  • Jon Marsden-Smedley
  • Maja Telišman Prtenjak

    (University of Zagreb)

Abstract

A major bushfire occurred during January 2013 near the towns Forcett and Dunalley in southeast Tasmania, Australia. Several records were broken by this wildfire, in terms of impacts to eco-systems, infrastructure and lives, and it was the first pyrocumulonimbus documented in Tasmania. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology high-resolution regional reanalysis for Tasmania (BARRA-TA), with 1.5-km spatial resolution, together with in-situ observations, was applied to reconstruct the wildfire event. The antecedent climatic conditions in Tasmania included a large increase in fuel load due to abundant rain one to two years before the event, followed by a heatwave during the summer of 2012/13. In the three periods we identified during the event reconstruction, the second period was the most dramatic, in which a low-level jet was directed downslope in southeast Tasmania to accelerate the fire spread. The BARRA-TA reanalysis revealed the mesoscale features occurring during the fire event additional to the climatic conditions and synoptic patterns documented in past studies. These include a cold front that crossed the fireground during the third period, and thus played a different role compared with some past extreme fire events in terms of airmass lifting and wind direction change. Moreover, mid-level moisture advected into the area was conducive to pyroconvection development.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivana Čavlina Tomašević & Paul Fox-Hughes & Kevin K. W. Cheung & Paul J. Beggs & Višnjica Vučetić & Jon Marsden-Smedley & Maja Telišman Prtenjak, 2025. "Meteorological analysis of an extreme pyroconvective wildfire at Dunalley-Forcett, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10843-10875, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07222-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07222-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jason J. Sharples & Geoffrey J. Cary & Paul Fox-Hughes & Scott Mooney & Jason P. Evans & Michael-Shawn Fletcher & Mike Fromm & Pauline F. Grierson & Rick McRae & Patrick Baker, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: extreme bushfire," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 85-99, November.
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