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Effective prediction of earthquake-induced slope displacements, considering region-specific seismotectonic and climatic conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Danny Love Wamba Djukem

    (Chengdu University of Technology)

  • Xuanmei Fan

    (Chengdu University of Technology)

  • Hans-Balder Havenith

    (Liege University)

Abstract

The Newmark displacement (ND) method is a reliable tool for assessing earthquake-induced slope deformation, yet a universally accepted regional-scale approach is still lacking. Existing ND equations often rely on regression from diverse strong-motion datasets or landslide statistics that were initially unavailable. To address this, we propose a site-adaptable ND approach (SAND) for various tectonic mountainous environments and scales. This knowledge- and data-driven method models cumulative slope displacement assuming normal pre-earthquake conditions, considering a quadratic relationship with peak ground acceleration (PGA) and a non-linear relationship with critical acceleration (Ac). We gradually incorporate region- and site-specific conditions, including fault type, focal mechanism, hanging/footwall effects, topographic amplifications, terrain roughness, and wetness coefficient. Case studies include landslides triggered by the Haiti earthquakes in 2010 and 2021, as well as those from Taiwan (1999), Lushan (2013 and 2022), and Luding (2022). SAND outperforms previous regression-based models in predicting landslide locations. The SAND threshold varies between 0 and 10 cm, in line with previous studies. The SAND approach quickly predicts shallow ETLs to support rescue efforts, using data on earthquake magnitude, epicenter, and focal mechanism (ideally the fault activated segment).

Suggested Citation

  • Danny Love Wamba Djukem & Xuanmei Fan & Hans-Balder Havenith, 2025. "Effective prediction of earthquake-induced slope displacements, considering region-specific seismotectonic and climatic conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(9), pages 10517-10552, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s11069-025-07200-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-025-07200-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wamba Danny Love Djukem & Anika Braun & Armand Sylvain Ludovic Wouatong & Christian Guedjeo & Katrin Dohmen & Pierre Wotchoko & Tomas Manuel Fernandez-Steeger & Hans-Balder Havenith, 2020. "Effect of Soil Geomechanical Properties and Geo-Environmental Factors on Landslide Predisposition at Mount Oku, Cameroon," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-27, September.
    2. Siyuan Ma & Chong Xu, 2019. "Assessment of co-seismic landslide hazard using the Newmark model and statistical analyses: a case study of the 2013 Lushan, China, Mw6.6 earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(1), pages 389-412, March.
    3. Shiva P. Pudasaini & Michael Krautblatter, 2021. "The mechanics of landslide mobility with erosion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
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