IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v114y2022i3d10.1007_s11069-022-05488-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Development of a kriging-based regional flood frequency analysis technique for South-East Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Sabrina Ali

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Ataur Rahman

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Flood is one of the most common natural disasters, which also triggers other natural disasters such as erosion and landslides. Flood damage can be minimised by ensuring optimum design of drainage infrastructure and other flood management tasks, which depends largely on reliable estimation of flood quantiles. This study investigates flood quantile estimation in ungauged catchments using a kriging-based regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) technique. Three main research objectives are addressed in this study. Firstly, kriging-based RFFA models are developed using 558 catchments from eastern Australia in the range of frequent to rare flood quantiles (2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years of average recurrence intervals (ARIs)). Secondly, a validation of the models by adopting a leave-one-out (LOO) validation technique is undertaken to identify the best and the worst performing catchments across eastern Australia. Finally, a detailed comparison is made for the kriging-based RFFA technique with a generalised least-squares-based quantile regression technique, known as ‘RFFE model 2016’ using the same dataset to evaluate whether there are general patterns of the performance in different catchments. The study shows that for eastern Australia (a) the developed kriging-based RFFA model is a viable alternative for flood quantile estimation in ungauged catchments, (b) the 10-year ARI model Q10 performs best among the six quantiles, which is followed by the models Q5 and Q20, and (c) the kriging-based RFFA model is found to outperform the ‘RFFE model 2016’.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabrina Ali & Ataur Rahman, 2022. "Development of a kriging-based regional flood frequency analysis technique for South-East Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2739-2765, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05488-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05488-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05488-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05488-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esmaeel Dodangeh & Vijay P. Singh & Binh Thai Pham & Jiabo Yin & Guang Yang & Amirhosein Mosavi, 2020. "Flood Frequency Analysis of Interconnected Rivers by Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(11), pages 3533-3549, September.
    2. Nariman Valizadeh & Majid Mirzaei & Mohammed Falah Allawi & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd & Aini Hussain & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2017. "Artificial intelligence and geo-statistical models for stream-flow forecasting in ungauged stations: state of the art," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1377-1392, April.
    3. K. Engeland & H. Hisdal, 2009. "A Comparison of Low Flow Estimates in Ungauged Catchments Using Regional Regression and the HBV-Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2567-2586, September.
    4. Ralf Merz & Günter Blöschl & Günter Humer, 2008. "National flood discharge mapping in Austria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 53-72, July.
    5. S. Baidya & Ajay Singh & Sudhindra N. Panda, 2020. "Flood frequency analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(3), pages 1137-1158, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Na Li & Shenglian Guo & Feng Xiong & Jun Wang & Yuzuo Xie, 2022. "Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk Estimation Methods in the Mainstream and its Tributaries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 683-698, January.
    2. R. K. Jaiswal & T. R. Nayak & A. K. Lohani & R. V. Galkate, 2022. "Regional flood frequency modeling for a large basin in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1845-1861, March.
    3. Ming Zhong & Ting Zeng & Tao Jiang & Huan Wu & Xiaohong Chen & Yang Hong, 2021. "A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 83-98, January.
    4. Yuming Huang & Yanjie Li & Min Liu & Liang Xiao & Fuwan Gan & Jian Jiao, 2022. "Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1175-1189, March.
    5. Gokmen Tayfur & Vijay Singh, 2011. "Predicting Mean and Bankfull Discharge from Channel Cross-Sectional Area by Expert and Regression Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1253-1267, March.
    6. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    7. C. Neuhold, 2013. "Identifying flood-prone landfills at different spatial scales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1425-1440, September.
    8. Klaus Schneeberger & Matthias Huttenlau & Benjamin Winter & Thomas Steinberger & Stefan Achleitner & Johann Stötter, 2019. "A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 125-139, January.
    9. Chang-Shian Chen & Frederick Chou & Boris Chen, 2010. "Spatial Information-Based Back-Propagation Neural Network Modeling for Outflow Estimation of Ungauged Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 4175-4197, November.
    10. Konstantina Risva & Dionysios Nikolopoulos & Andreas Efstratiadis & Ioannis Nalbantis, 2018. "A Framework for Dry Period Low Flow Forecasting in Mediterranean Streams," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4911-4932, December.
    11. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    12. Saeid Eslamian & Mehdi Ghasemizadeh & Monireh Biabanaki & Mansoor Talebizadeh, 2010. "A Principal Component Regression Method for Estimating Low Flow Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2553-2566, September.
    13. Paolo Vezza & Claudio Comoglio & Maurizio Rosso & Alberto Viglione, 2010. "Low Flows Regionalization in North-Western Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 4049-4074, November.
    14. B. Winter & K. Schneeberger & M. Huttenlau & J. Stötter, 2018. "Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 431-446, March.
    15. Pao-Shan Yu & Tao-Chang Yang & Chen-Min Kuo & Yi-Tai Wang, 2014. "A Stochastic Approach for Seasonal Water-Shortage Probability Forecasting Based on Seasonal Weather Outlook," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 3905-3920, September.
    16. Jordan Clayton & Jason Kean, 2010. "Establishing a Multi-scale Stream Gaging Network in the Whitewater River Basin, Kansas, USA," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3641-3664, October.
    17. Yuefeng Yao & Azim Mallik, 2020. "Stream Flow Changes and the Sustainability of Cruise Tourism on the Lijiang River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Franz Sinabell & Georg Böhs & Stephanie Lackner & Dieter Pennerstorfer & Helmut Habersack & Lukas Löschner & Roswitha Samek & Bernhard Schober & Walter Seher, 2016. "Naturgefahren und die Belastung von Landeshaushalten," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58785, April.
    19. Wilfredo Caballero & Ataur Rahman, 2014. "Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1475-1488, December.
    20. Junfu Gong & Cheng Yao & Zhijia Li & Yuanfang Chen & Yingchun Huang & Bingxing Tong, 2021. "Improving the flood forecasting capability of the Xinanjiang model for small- and medium-sized ungauged catchments in South China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2077-2109, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05488-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.