IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v107y2021i2d10.1007_s11069-021-04621-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast and risk analysis of floodplain regarding uncertainty factors

Author

Listed:
  • Elham Jokar

    (Razi University)

  • Ali Arman

    (Razi University)

  • Arash Azari

    (Razi University)

Abstract

Today, it seems necessary to study and analyze the uncertainty in any plan, so that without considering and analyzing the uncertainty, the occurrence of undesired situations whose occurrence challenges the objectives of a plan is unexpected. The uncertainty is an integral part of hydrological and hydraulic models, and a proper evaluation of uncertainties in hydrological and hydraulic models may help avoid risky decisions, and high costs in product life cycle and design of structures. The purpose of this study is to predict and analyze the flood risk zone in different probabilities and investigate the role of uncertainty related to inlet flow hydrograph and Manning’s roughness coefficient in river flood zone in Seymareh river. The first step was flood zoning using the Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System model (Hec-Ras). Then, using synthetic data generation, 3049-year-old series of synthetic peak discharges were generated for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return periods. Finally, using the discharge-probability curve, the probable boundaries of the river flood plain were determined at 90 and 10% probability levels, respectively. The results showed that the higher the degree of uncertainty of inflow discharges, the greater the rate of changes in flood and flood zone. In the next step, parameter space sampling (roughness coefficient of flood zone and channel) was performed using Monte Carlo simulation and the model was run 500 times. The simulated flood zone was evaluated based on observational flood zone using the F factor. The response-level curve obtained from Monte Carlo sampling showed that the highest F performance was when the channel roughness coefficient was 0.046 and the flood plain roughness coefficient was 0.058. Then, the uncertainty was determined using the cumulative distribution function of flood zones of the upper and lower limits. The results showed that taking into account the uncertainty threshold of the discharge in all return periods based on probabilities of 18 to 38% is able to cover all risks arising from inaccurate estimation of the flow rate in each return period.

Suggested Citation

  • Elham Jokar & Ali Arman & Arash Azari, 2021. "Forecast and risk analysis of floodplain regarding uncertainty factors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1125-1148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04621-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04621-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-04621-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-04621-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiang-Jen Wu & Jinn-Chuang Yang & Yeou-Koung Tung, 2011. "Risk analysis for flood-control structure under consideration of uncertainties in design flood," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 117-140, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hsiao-Ping Wei & Yuan-Fong Su & Chao-Tzuen Cheng & Keh-Chia Yeh, 2020. "Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Song-Yue Yang & Che-Hao Chang & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Shiang-Jen Wu, 2022. "Variation of uncertainty of drainage density in flood hazard mapping assessment with coupled 1D–2D hydrodynamics model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2297-2315, April.
    3. Shiang-Jen Wu & Chih-Tsung Hsu & Ho-Cheng Lien & Che-Hao Chang, 2015. "Modeling the effect of uncertainties in rainfall characteristics on flash flood warning based on rainfall thresholds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1677-1711, January.
    4. Wei Wang & Jia Liu & Chuanzhe Li & Fuliang Yu & Yuebo Xie & Qingtai Qiu & Yufei Jiao & Guojuan Zhang, 2020. "Assessing the applicability of conceptual hydrological models for design flood estimation in small-scale watersheds of northern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1135-1153, July.
    5. Ahmet Ozan Celik & Volkan Kiricci & Canberk Insel, 2017. "Reassessment of the flood damage at a river diversion hydropower plant site: lessons learned from a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 833-847, March.
    6. Y. Umer & V. Jetten & J. Ettema & L. Lombardo, 2022. "Application of the WRF model rainfall product for the localized flood hazard modeling in a data-scarce environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1813-1844, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:107:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-04621-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.